{"id":634,"date":"2016-01-16T19:04:02","date_gmt":"2016-01-16T18:04:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/csrhungary.eu\/csrblog\/?p=634"},"modified":"2016-01-16T19:04:02","modified_gmt":"2016-01-16T18:04:02","slug":"mi-az-a-6-tenyezo-ami-2016-gazdasagat-meghatarozza-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/csrhungary.eu\/csrblog\/2016\/01\/16\/mi-az-a-6-tenyezo-ami-2016-gazdasagat-meghatarozza-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Mi az a 6 t\u00e9nyez\u0151, ami 2016 gazdas\u00e1g\u00e1t meghat\u00e1rozza? (2)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Folytatom\u00a0Aders Borg, kor\u00e1bbi sv\u00e9d p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyminiszter \u00f6sszefoglal\u00f3j\u00e1t, hogy 2016-ban milyen kih\u00edv\u00e1sokkal \u00e9s neh\u00e9zs\u00e9gekkel fogunk szemben\u00e9zni. Az els\u0151 3 befoly\u00e1sol\u00f3 t\u00e9nyez\u0151t m\u00e1r bemutattam. J\u00f6n a m\u00e1sodik 3 befoly\u00e1sol\u00f3 t\u00e9nyez\u0151, L\u00e1sd al\u00e1bb!<\/strong><\/p>\n

4.\u00a0\u00a0Oroszorsz\u00e1g szerepe a vil\u00e1gban<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Egy m\u00e1sik politikai t\u00e9nyez\u0151<\/strong>, mely hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rul a p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi bizonytalans\u00e1ghoz Oroszorsz\u00e1g<\/strong>. Putyin er\u0151s jelenl\u00e9tet alak\u00edtott ki Sz\u00edri\u00e1ban \u00e9s Irakban.Nyilv\u00e1nval\u00f3an igen t\u00f6r\u00e9keny Putyin \u00fajrapoz\u00edcion\u00e1l\u00e1sa, azonban mindezek mellett Putyin agressz\u00edv ir\u00e1nyvonala a kelet-ukrajnai konfliktusban sem h\u00e1tr\u00e1l meg. Hossz\u00fat\u00e1von Oroszorsz\u00e1gban is hanyatl\u00f3 trendek bontakoznak ki. Mint az alacsony termel\u00e9kenys\u00e9g, a korai alkoholfogyaszt\u00e1s okozta hal\u00e1lok a f\u00e9rfiak k\u00f6r\u00e9ben. T\u00falzott f\u00fcgg\u0151s\u00e9g a term\u00e9szeti er\u0151forr\u00e1sokt\u00f3l.
\nR\u00f6vid t\u00e1von a szomsz\u00e9dos orsz\u00e1gokra is fenyegt\u00e9st jelenthet Oroszorsz\u00e1g. Ahol a gyenges\u00e9g jelei mutatkoznak, ott Putyin kihaszn\u00e1lja a lehet\u0151s\u00e9geket. Az orosz eln\u00f6k er\u0151ss\u00e9ge a populizmus \u00e9s Nyugat ellenes retorika.<\/p>\n

Mindezek ismeret\u00e9ben az elk\u00f6vetkezend\u0151 \u00e9vekben kock\u00e1zatosak az orosz befektet\u00e9sek.<\/strong> Gazdas\u00e1gi fellend\u00fcl\u00e9s, akkor k\u00f6vetkezhetne be, ha a k\u00fclf\u00f6ldi befektet\u0151k azt tapasztaln\u00e1k, hogy Oroszorsz\u00e1g nyitott az egy\u00fcttm\u0171k\u00f6d\u00e9sre. \u00c9s k\u00e9sz arra, hogy megreform\u00e1lja archaikus gazdas\u00e1gi strukt\u00far\u00e1it.<\/p>\n

5. Gyenge n\u00f6veked\u00e9s \u00e9s szakaszosan fejl\u0151d\u0151 piacok<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

2016-ban alacsony lesz a glob\u00e1lis n\u00f6veked\u00e9s. Jelent\u0151s p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi zavarok<\/strong> alakulnak ki. A fellend\u00fcl\u0151 USA \u00e9s a n\u00f6veked\u0151 K\u00edna lassul\u00e1sa bizonytalans\u00e1got teremthet a p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi piacokon. A rendk\u00edv\u00fcli monet\u00e1ris politikai int\u00e9zked\u00e9sek az elm\u00falt n\u00e9h\u00e1ny \u00e9vben r\u00f6vid t\u00e1von p\u00e9nzt pump\u00e1ltak a glob\u00e1lis p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi rendszerbe. Az alacsony likvidit\u00e1s a piacokon \u00e9s az \u00faj szab\u00e1lyoz\u00e1si strukt\u00far\u00e1k turbulens alaphangot okozhatnak.<\/p>\n

6. K\u00edna \u00e9s a reformok<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Kulcst\u00e9nyez\u0151 az is, hogy K\u00edna k\u00e9pes lesz-e fokozatosan vissza\u00e1ll\u00edtani egyens\u00faly\u00e1t ? gazdas\u00e1gi beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok, fogyaszt\u00e1s… – megnyitja-e az utat a fenntarthat\u00f3bb n\u00f6veked\u00e9shez??<\/strong>
\nEl\u0151mozd\u00edtj\u00e1k-e azokat a reformokat, melyek megnyitn\u00e1k a gazdas\u00e1got a j\u00f3l m\u0171k\u00f6d\u0151 piacgazdas\u00e1g fel\u00e9<\/strong>.
\nA reformok m\u00e9rt\u00e9ke \u00e9s sikeress\u00e9ge att\u00f3l is f\u00fcgg, hogy az ellen\u00e1ll\u00e1st k\u00e9pvisel\u0151 \u00e9rdekcsoportokat hogyan tudj\u00e1k kezelni. Bele\u00e9rtve az \u00e1llami v\u00e1llalatokat \u00e9s a konzervat\u00edvabb hatalmi k\u00f6zpontokat.<\/p>\n

Fontos hangs\u00falyozni azt is, hogy milyen fontos K\u00edna sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra a t\u00f6bbi felt\u00f6rekv\u0151 piaci orsz\u00e1g. \u00c1zsi\u00e1ban, Latin-Amerik\u00e1ban \u00e9s Afrik\u00e1ban n\u00f6vekv\u0151 kereslet a vas\u00e9rc, r\u00e9z \u00e9s az olaj ir\u00e1nt K\u00edn\u00e1b\u00f3l. Ha K\u00edna sikeresen kezeli a hazai kih\u00edv\u00e1sokat, akkor a felt\u00f6rekv\u0151 piacokon \u00fajra jelentkezik az optimizmus.<\/p>\n

Ha m\u00e9g nem csatlakozt\u00e1l a CSR Hungary Klubhoz …
\n<\/span><\/strong>Gazdas\u00e1g, t\u00e1rsadalom, k\u00f6rnyezet…
\nakkor itt teheted meg!<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2016-ban milyen kih\u00edv\u00e1sokkal \u00e9s neh\u00e9zs\u00e9gekkel fogunk szemben\u00e9zni.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":589,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[173,174,175],"class_list":["post-634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","tag-gazdasagi-tenyezok-2016","tag-kina","tag-oroszorszag"],"yoast_head":"\nMi az a 6 t\u00e9nyez\u0151, ami 2016 gazdas\u00e1g\u00e1t meghat\u00e1rozza? 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